Like many political watchers, a Nevada resident named Domer had an opinion about who would emerge from turmoil within the Republican Party to become the next speaker of the House of Representatives.
Unlike most of them, he pocketed US$13,000 (HK$101,400) when Mike Johnson was elected.
The fact that political gambling is illegal in the United States has not deterred Domer or others like him from using online overseas markets to wager on American politics.
Domer, who said he earns about US$500,000 a year betting on politics across the globe, including in Italy and South Africa, is often active in chatrooms on Discord and other sites that buzz with debate among afficionados.
“There’s a lot of trash talk – it’s similar to sports betting,” he said. “It’s combative and congenial at the same time.”
Political betting was common – and legal – in the United States until the rise of relatively accurate polling in the 1930s.
Futures trading regulations passed in 1936, as well as crackdowns on sports betting and the perception of gambling as seedy all helped put an end to markets that once populated both Wall Street and the politics pages of newspapers.
Today, critics still worry gambling could fuel corruption or the gamification of the political system.
But, as the internet has made gambling easier, users like Domer use VPNs to skirt around government regulators that have closed down sites or halted the entry of platforms that try to offer political betting to Americans.
Only two have been able to stay alive, due to their affiliations with university research projects.
The government moved last year to shut down one of them, New Zealand-based PredictIt, alleging it had exceeded its research-focused mandate. It was granted a lifeline by a July court decision in its favor that will keep its lights on as litigation continues.
Supporters say legal markets offer benefits to the public and traders alike, and the impact is negligible as bets are capped at a few hundred dollars.
“These markets encourage attention to political events, and they serve as an antidote to fake news,” PredictIt chief John Phillips said.
“Prediction markets are not perfect,” he said, but they are “better than polling.”
There are studies backing him up, though it is a contention not all political scientists agree with. For better or worse, journalists stick almost exclusively with polls – which, traders note, also inform their bets.
PredictIt is currently offering shares in Biden being the nominee for 68 cents, meaning a trader who bought a share would earn 32 cents if he is the Democratic candidate in 2024, which is likely.
But bet big on California governor Gavin Newsom, who has not even entered the race, and each share bought for 23 cents would earn 77 cents, minus fees.
Markets also deliver insights that polls do not always capture – not just about politics, but also economics, said Tom Gruca, director of the Iowa Electronic Markets, a political betting operation run at the University of Iowa, where he also teaches.
“When you answer a poll, you tell people what you wish is going to happen,” he said – unlike a market, which captures “what you think is going to happen.”
But for markets to work – for academic insights to be gleaned, and riches to be won – there must also be losers.
“I’m currently betting a lot of money that [Donald] Trump will not be the GOP nominee – which was what I thought was a smart bet a year ago, and is now looking like the world’s dumbest bet ever,” said Domer.
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